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Posted February 26, 2016 by Scott Davis in Features
 
 

Who Will Win (And Who Should Win) at the 2016 Oscars

The Academy Awards are not for everyone, but, for whatever reason, they are for me. Something about Oscar season puts a smile on my face, which I know is not a popular thing to say in the film community. It’s popular to say the awards mean nothing and that the voters are mostly old white men voting on Oscars Preview“artsy” films that are aimed only at them and no one else. With all of the controversy surrounding this year’s nominees, that seems the case more than ever. Yet, I will still be eagerly watching this Sunday night to see what wins each award (yes even Best Documentary Short, I love seeing someone no one knows capture Oscar glory).

This year, more than most, is especially exciting. Many of the races, including Best Picture, are still up in the air. While many see the awards as pointless, I see them as solidification to what certain films did. Do I agree with all of the winners? Absolutely not. Does that mean they are not worthy of an Academy Award? Unless “Earned It” by The Weeknd wins Best Original Song, therefore making Fifty Shades of Grey an Academy Award winning movie, then they are worthy.

I have seen every Best Picture nominee, which means I have also seen most of the nominees in the other categories as well. So then, here are my brazen predictions on who will win and, in some cases, who should win at the 2016 Oscars.

 

Spotlight PosterBEST PICTURE

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Spotlight

For the first time in years, the Best Picture race is almost completely wide open. The Revenant has had an especially strong season with wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and the DGAs. All of those wins are impressive, but The Big Short won the PGAs, which has been a strong indicator over the past decade on who will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. You also cannot count out the favorite heading into Oscar season, Spotlight. The film won best ensemble at the SAG awards and was the Critics’ Choice Winner for best film. All three films have a lot going for it, but if I had to choose right now (and I do) I would lean towards The Revenant. The film is not only a critical success; it is also a commercial one that seems to be connecting with many of the branches in the Academy. Although it is certainly worthy, my pick would be the quieter, yet more impactful, Spotlight. It’s a very difficult subject matter, but with the careful direction, tight screenplay, and the year’s best cast, Spotlight is not only one of the best films of the year, it’s one of the best films about journalism ever.

The RevenantBEST ACTOR

Will Win/Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

This is Leo’s year. Everyone is saying, everyone is feeling it, and it’s time to finally give one of Hollywood’s most gifted actors his due. I personally thought he should have won for his perfectly crazy performance in The Wolf of Wall Street, but this win will do just fine. No matter if you want to call it a “career” Oscar or if you felt his physically demanding performance in The Revenant is deserving, he should win Oscar gold here. The other actors give fine performances, but there is no denying Leo this year.

Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay in Room.BEST ACTRESS

Will Win/Should Win: Brie Larson, Room

There is a lot of talent in this category. Saoirse Ronan is a marvel in Brooklyn, Jennifer Lawrence is arguably the best part of Joy, and Cate Blanchett and Charlotte Rampling received rave reviews for Carol and 45 Years respectively. Just like in the Best Actor race, however, there is a clear frontrunner here. Brie Larson’s performance in Room is something to behold. Not only is it heartbreakingly powerful, there is a nuance to her performances that most young actresses cannot pull off and carries Room. After this (hopefully) award-winning performance and her equally powerful performance in Short Term 12, we might be witnessing a passing of the torch, as Brie Larson could become the new Jennifer Lawrence.

Mark Rylance in Bridge of SpiesBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Mark Rylance gives the best performance in this group of incredibly talented actors. Not only is his character complex and three-dimensional, Rylance’s performance matches it perfectly. He owns every second of his limited screen time, and makes what could have been a forgettable character into something incredibly memorable. That being said, Rylance has not done enough on the awards circuit to guarantee himself a win. Someone that has been everywhere and Hollywood seems to love? Sylvester Stallone. It seems like the perfect Hollywood story to give the Oscar to a beloved actor who has been in some lousy movies lately (Bullet to the Head anyone?) and returns to his most iconic role. He won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, which means he should be a pretty big lock for Sunday night.

Alicia Vikander in The Danish GirlBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win/Should Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Alicia Vikander had a 2015 to remember. Not only was she one of the highlights of The Danish Girl, she was also award worthy in the science-fiction thriller, Ex Machina. Personally, I think that performance is more impressive, but since the Academy likes to lean more towards artsy subjects, I’m fine with her winning for The Danish Girl. With a win at the SAG awards, she should take home her first Oscar. Kate Winslet won at the Golden Globes, so there is an outside shot for her to pull the upset, but it seems Vikander’s to lose at this point.

George Miller on the set of Mad Max: Fury RoadBEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Even though Alejandro G. Inarritu won this award last year for Birdman, there is no reason to think otherwise that he won’t repeat this year for his masterful work in The Revenant. The film works on so many different levels and that’s in large part to Inarritu’s direction. All of the other nominees are certainly worthy of the award, but in my mind George Miller should (and might) walk away with this win. The Academy loves to give this award to the most visually pleasing film and then reward Best Picture to a more conventional film. A recent example would be in 2013 when Alfonso Cuaron won for Gravity and then 12 Years A Slave won Best Picture. I do not think that will be the case this year, however, since The Revenant, much like Birdman last year, is both visually and cerebrally pleasing. Miller’s work in Mad Max: Fury Road is something of mad genius, but Inarritu is in the driver’s seat with wins at the DGAs, BAFTAs, and Golden Globes.

The Big Short PosterBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win/Should Win: The Big Short

The Academy loves to reward all of its Best Picture nominees with at least one win. This is The Big Short’s best (and most deserving) shot to win. With wins at the WGAs, BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice Awards, this is seems like a pretty big lock. It is very deserving as well because of the interesting balancing act it pulls off so well. Unlike the mean spirited The Wolf of Wall Street, The Big Short uses its humor to further the plot and actually explain what is going on. Many of the concepts are (unnecessarily) complex, but the screenplay explains everything with not only a close eye to detail, but with scathingly funny humor as well. If The Big Short wins this, it has an outside shot at winning Best Picture as well.

Inside OutBEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Inside Out

Once again, the Academy loves to honor every film in the Best Picture category, so look for Spotlight to win possibly its only award of the night. This is the category that it has the best shot because of the screenplay’s ability to take years of investigative journalism and turn it into not only a thrilling two hours, but also being respectful to the subject matter. It is certainly worthy, but I would like to see the truly delightful (and my favorite film of 2015) Inside Out take home this prize. The film’s screenplay is the perfect example of what animated movies should (and usually don’t) aspire to be. Creative, funny, touching, and beautiful, Inside Out is Pixar’s best screenplay, which is truly saying something and should be rewarded for that.

Inside OutBEST ANIMATED FILM

Will Win/Should Win: Inside Out

As I just mentioned, Pixar’s Inside Out was not only the best animated movie I saw last year, it was the best movie period. One of the biggest snubs for me was the fact that it did not get nominated for Best Picture, but this is a nice consolation prize. It is the best film in this group, and although Anomalisa seems perfect awards bait, Inside Out should easily win this.

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Cinderella

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: The Big Short

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win/Should Win: The Revenant

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win/Should Win: Star Wars – The Force Awakens

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Star Wars – The Force Awakens

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win/Should Win: “Writings on the Wall,” Spectre

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Sanjay’s Super Team

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Ave Maria

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Body Team 12

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win/Should Win: Amy

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win/Should Win: Son of Saul

Scott Davis

Scott Davis

Scott Davis is a recent graduate of Oakland University where he earned a degree in journalism. He worked for the student newspaper on campus, The Oakland Post, where he became the paper's managing editor. He also earned a minor in Cinema Studies at OU. Scott enjoys all things film and TV related, especially the blockbuster kind. He might be the biggest Christopher Nolan fan you know.