Who Will Win (And Who Should Win) at the 2016 Oscars
The Academy Awards are not for everyone, but, for whatever reason, they are for me. Something about Oscar season puts a smile on my face, which I know is not a popular thing to say in the film community. It’s popular to say the awards mean nothing and that the voters are mostly old white men voting on “artsy” films that are aimed only at them and no one else. With all of the controversy surrounding this year’s nominees, that seems the case more than ever. Yet, I will still be eagerly watching this Sunday night to see what wins each award (yes even Best Documentary Short, I love seeing someone no one knows capture Oscar glory).
This year, more than most, is especially exciting. Many of the races, including Best Picture, are still up in the air. While many see the awards as pointless, I see them as solidification to what certain films did. Do I agree with all of the winners? Absolutely not. Does that mean they are not worthy of an Academy Award? Unless “Earned It” by The Weeknd wins Best Original Song, therefore making Fifty Shades of Grey an Academy Award winning movie, then they are worthy.
I have seen every Best Picture nominee, which means I have also seen most of the nominees in the other categories as well. So then, here are my brazen predictions on who will win and, in some cases, who should win at the 2016 Oscars.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Spotlight
For the first time in years, the Best Picture race is almost completely wide open. The Revenant has had an especially strong season with wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and the DGAs. All of those wins are impressive, but The Big Short won the PGAs, which has been a strong indicator over the past decade on who will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. You also cannot count out the favorite heading into Oscar season, Spotlight. The film won best ensemble at the SAG awards and was the Critics’ Choice Winner for best film. All three films have a lot going for it, but if I had to choose right now (and I do) I would lean towards The Revenant. The film is not only a critical success; it is also a commercial one that seems to be connecting with many of the branches in the Academy. Although it is certainly worthy, my pick would be the quieter, yet more impactful, Spotlight. It’s a very difficult subject matter, but with the careful direction, tight screenplay, and the year’s best cast, Spotlight is not only one of the best films of the year, it’s one of the best films about journalism ever.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win/Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
This is Leo’s year. Everyone is saying, everyone is feeling it, and it’s time to finally give one of Hollywood’s most gifted actors his due. I personally thought he should have won for his perfectly crazy performance in The Wolf of Wall Street, but this win will do just fine. No matter if you want to call it a “career” Oscar or if you felt his physically demanding performance in The Revenant is deserving, he should win Oscar gold here. The other actors give fine performances, but there is no denying Leo this year.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win/Should Win: Brie Larson, Room
There is a lot of talent in this category. Saoirse Ronan is a marvel in Brooklyn, Jennifer Lawrence is arguably the best part of Joy, and Cate Blanchett and Charlotte Rampling received rave reviews for Carol and 45 Years respectively. Just like in the Best Actor race, however, there is a clear frontrunner here. Brie Larson’s performance in Room is something to behold. Not only is it heartbreakingly powerful, there is a nuance to her performances that most young actresses cannot pull off and carries Room. After this (hopefully) award-winning performance and her equally powerful performance in Short Term 12, we might be witnessing a passing of the torch, as Brie Larson could become the new Jennifer Lawrence.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Mark Rylance gives the best performance in this group of incredibly talented actors. Not only is his character complex and three-dimensional, Rylance’s performance matches it perfectly. He owns every second of his limited screen time, and makes what could have been a forgettable character into something incredibly memorable. That being said, Rylance has not done enough on the awards circuit to guarantee himself a win. Someone that has been everywhere and Hollywood seems to love? Sylvester Stallone. It seems like the perfect Hollywood story to give the Oscar to a beloved actor who has been in some lousy movies lately (Bullet to the Head anyone?) and returns to his most iconic role. He won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, which means he should be a pretty big lock for Sunday night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win/Should Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Alicia Vikander had a 2015 to remember. Not only was she one of the highlights of The Danish Girl, she was also award worthy in the science-fiction thriller, Ex Machina. Personally, I think that performance is more impressive, but since the Academy likes to lean more towards artsy subjects, I’m fine with her winning for The Danish Girl. With a win at the SAG awards, she should take home her first Oscar. Kate Winslet won at the Golden Globes, so there is an outside shot for her to pull the upset, but it seems Vikander’s to lose at this point.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Even though Alejandro G. Inarritu won this award last year for Birdman, there is no reason to think otherwise that he won’t repeat this year for his masterful work in The Revenant. The film works on so many different levels and that’s in large part to Inarritu’s direction. All of the other nominees are certainly worthy of the award, but in my mind George Miller should (and might) walk away with this win. The Academy loves to give this award to the most visually pleasing film and then reward Best Picture to a more conventional film. A recent example would be in 2013 when Alfonso Cuaron won for Gravity and then 12 Years A Slave won Best Picture. I do not think that will be the case this year, however, since The Revenant, much like Birdman last year, is both visually and cerebrally pleasing. Miller’s work in Mad Max: Fury Road is something of mad genius, but Inarritu is in the driver’s seat with wins at the DGAs, BAFTAs, and Golden Globes.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win/Should Win: The Big Short
The Academy loves to reward all of its Best Picture nominees with at least one win. This is The Big Short’s best (and most deserving) shot to win. With wins at the WGAs, BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice Awards, this is seems like a pretty big lock. It is very deserving as well because of the interesting balancing act it pulls off so well. Unlike the mean spirited The Wolf of Wall Street, The Big Short uses its humor to further the plot and actually explain what is going on. Many of the concepts are (unnecessarily) complex, but the screenplay explains everything with not only a close eye to detail, but with scathingly funny humor as well. If The Big Short wins this, it has an outside shot at winning Best Picture as well.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Inside Out
Once again, the Academy loves to honor every film in the Best Picture category, so look for Spotlight to win possibly its only award of the night. This is the category that it has the best shot because of the screenplay’s ability to take years of investigative journalism and turn it into not only a thrilling two hours, but also being respectful to the subject matter. It is certainly worthy, but I would like to see the truly delightful (and my favorite film of 2015) Inside Out take home this prize. The film’s screenplay is the perfect example of what animated movies should (and usually don’t) aspire to be. Creative, funny, touching, and beautiful, Inside Out is Pixar’s best screenplay, which is truly saying something and should be rewarded for that.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Will Win/Should Win: Inside Out
As I just mentioned, Pixar’s Inside Out was not only the best animated movie I saw last year, it was the best movie period. One of the biggest snubs for me was the fact that it did not get nominated for Best Picture, but this is a nice consolation prize. It is the best film in this group, and although Anomalisa seems perfect awards bait, Inside Out should easily win this.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Cinderella
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: The Big Short
BEST MAKEUP
Will Win/Should Win: The Revenant
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win/Should Win: Star Wars – The Force Awakens
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Star Wars – The Force Awakens
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win/Should Win: “Writings on the Wall,” Spectre
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Sanjay’s Super Team
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Ave Maria
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Body Team 12
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win/Should Win: Amy
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win/Should Win: Son of Saul
Scott Davis
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