There were three new releases this week, but with American Sniper reigning once more at the top of the box office with an estimated $31.9 million…and at $248.9 million and counting, it is the fifth highest earning R-Rated film of all time…it is understandable that they are not exactly the top draws, especially considering their critical reception. Even Paddington, for instance, entered its third week in second place with an estimated $8.5 
million, just edging out the estimated $8.5 million for the time travel suspense thriller Project Almanac (though at only $12 million to make, it does not have much work to become profitable), and doing far better than the latest Kevin Costner vehicle Black or White, which brought in an estimated $6.5 million. Neither film is making much headway critically, but both have weathered those storms better than The Loft, a Karl Urban-starring Hitchcockian thriller which debuted in tenth with an estimated $2.9 million.
In between, things seem to be going about as expected; The Boy Next Door may not be a barn burner, but at an estimated $6.1 million and $24.7 million over a $4 million budget, it has done incredibly well on a sliding scale, while an estimated $5.7 million for The Wedding Ringer puts it on solid footing with $48.1 million.
The Imitation Game has still released no numbers, but with an estimated $5.2 million and a domestic total of $68 million, the biopic has probably done good business. Taken 3 and its estimated $3.7 million is still a low water mark for the franchise domestically, but worldwide it has done nearly as well as Taken 2…speaking of which, a franchise does not appear likely for the unfortunate Strange Magic. At an estimated $3.4 million, it is the only film in the top ten to have not debuted this week to have made less than $10 million domestically, and as a CG film, a likely disastrous flop in the making.
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Weekend Box Office (January 30th –February 1st)
- American Sniper…$31.9 million
- Paddington…$8.5 million
- Project Almanac…$8.5 million
- Black and White…$6.5 million
- The Boy Next Door…$6.1 million
- The Wedding Ringer…$5.7 million
- The Imitation Game…$5.2 million
- Taken 3…$3.7 million
- Strange Magic…$3.4 million
- The Loft…$2.9 million
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Dan
In what universe is Project Almanac going to be profitable? Do you seriously think the production budget is all that a movie costs? It’s something like 2.5 times that by the time it’s done with prints and advertising and they spent a lot on advertising this particular movie which is not doing great internationally either. They need to pull in 30 mil to break even on this dog. Going to be a write off for paramount.
Seth
When I say profitable, I’m not saying successful. Advertising dollars aside (since those are such a nebulous thing to begin with), and even going on a split down the middle in ticket sales, it would need roughly $24 million to be ‘profitable’ to the studio in hard numbers, which some very unlikely films have pulled off, even badly reviewed ones. Project Almanac at least can be something that has a chance for the studios to point to and say, “well, it didn’t do THAT badly. We at least covered our costs,” given enough weeks. I save “flop” status for stuff that can’t even make back its production costs…take Mortdecai, which has barely made back a fifth of its $60 million budget, and that includes its entire worldwide take. Talk about a write-off there.
Dan
I get your logic, but they spent a LOT on ad costs here (easily more than doubling the budget), had it on a shelf for a year and then pulled/replaced a shot a week before the release on almost 3000 prints. I’m not even buying the 12 mil budget they’re putting out there. More like $14-15m. And my guess is more like $20m p & a on this one. Then a no-name cast will suffer internationally (already is). I think where this may cross into the black would be in rental/streaming later on, but not sure who gets that slice of the pie. Either way, it’s not going to do anywhere close to what they thought it would do.
Seth
There have been a few movies I’ve been suspicious of the reported numbers (most of them having no reported budget during release week, like 57 Ronin’s mysteriously estimated $200 million turning into $175 million, or The Purge at only $3 million), but without insider info, there’s only so much that can be gathered from estimation. And I agree, there’s no telling what any studio would admit to. Film critic Joe Queenan once tried to make a low budget film that would cost under the $7000 reported budget of El Mariachi, only to find out later that the version he saw on screen had gone through a laborious and expensive process to make it even remotely watchable in theaters…a process never mentioned in any press releases. He still claims his film was cheaper, and reports that it cost way more (and he gave out the exact number it cost him) was greatly exaggerated.
Again, not saying it will be a winner at the box office (or perform anywhere near what it was hoped to do), but it has a better shot than some of the ones I’ve seen go up and down the list. And at least it’s something to watch…The Weinstein Company steadfastly refuses to ever release anything substantial. Hard to say if St. Vincent or Paddington is doing well when one can’t even hazard a guess.
Seth
I should hurriedly correct myself…The Weinstein Company never seems to release any substantial NUMBERS, and that Project Almanac has numbers to watch. I’m not implying The Weinstein Company doesn’t release quality films. That’s another topic entirely.